International FTL corridors: operational data and structural constraints driving the modal shift

Insight

Contship has conducted a study on the evolution of FTL freight flows along the main logistics corridors between Northern Italy, Germany, the Benelux countries and the United Kingdom for the period 2021–2025

The analysis examined trends in volumes, transit times, available capacity and road transport costs, highlighting how the gradual modal shift towards combined transport (truck-rail) now represents a strategic choice that is necessary to increase the resilience, predictability and efficiency of European supply chains, as well as an opportunity in terms of environmental sustainability.

FTL: key corridors under the spotlight

The research is based on data from the Transporeon platform, a Trimble company, which, with over 30 million shipments a year, represents the largest dataset available in Europe. The analysis covers the period 2021–2025, examining around 350,000 FTL journeys per year and focusing on three strategic corridors which alone account for around 10% of the European market for FTL road corridors.

The period 2021–2025 has put pressure on the main road freight corridors between northern Italy and the major industrial hubs of northern Europe: rising costs, volatile and unstable capacity, and deteriorating service reliability. For companies managing international FTL (Full Truck Load) flows over long distances, these dynamics are not merely cyclical phenomena, but indicate a structural shift.

Germany, Benelux and the United Kingdom: the most strategic FTL corridors for Italian exports

The corridors analysed form the backbone of FTL freight flows between Northern Italy and the main logistics and manufacturing hubs in Northern Europe. These routes pass through the Brenner, Gotthard and Fréjus Alpine passes, which are the three main land transit hubs for two-way freight traffic between Italy and Northern Europe.

Northern Italy ↔ Benelux: over 100,000 FTLs per year, distances of 800–1,200 km, accounting for 28% of the total volumes analysed in 2024–2025.
Northern Italy ↔ Germany: over 220,000 FTLs per year; this is the busiest corridor, accounting for 63% of the total volumes analysed. Within this corridor, Transporeon data identifies further sub-routes, including routes to northern and eastern Germany, which exhibit distinct cost and capacity dynamics.
Northern Italy ↔ UK: approximately 30,000 FTLs per year, with London and the main logistics hubs in the south-east as the primary destinations. This is a corridor with specific operational characteristics, linked to the customs procedures introduced with Brexit and the crossing of the English Channel.

All three corridors are characterised by long-distance routes and high industrial traffic volumes, two factors that make them particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in road transport capacity and to cost variations associated with this mode of transport.

Shift towards intermodal transport: transit times that are putting pressure on road transport

One of the most significant findings of the analysis concerns actual delivery times. 41% of the total road freight volume analysed, equivalent to approximately 143,000 full truckloads (FTLs) per year, has a transit time exceeding 48 hours. This segment of shipments has the greatest potential for modal shift towards intermodal transport solutions, particularly combined rail-road transport.

For each individual corridor, the distribution is as follows:

Northern Italy–Benelux: 40% of shipments take longer than 48 hours
Northern Italy–Northern Germany: 51% take longer than 48 hours
Northern Italy–United Kingdom: 64% fall within the 48–96-hour range, with a further 13% taking longer than 96 hours

On this last route, transit times reflect the operational complexities associated with crossing the English Channel, post-Brexit customs procedures managed via the GVMS (Goods Vehicle Movement Service) system, and structural capacity imbalances between outbound and inbound flows – factors which combine to make the road service structurally less reliable than the other routes analysed, thereby reinforcing the value of rail-ferry intermodal solutions for operational stability and simplified customs clearance.

Load rejection rate: the indicator that measures the pressure on road capacity

The rejection rate for contracted loads is used as a benchmark to assess the actual availability of capacity in international FTL transport. It highlights the percentage of shipments rejected by carriers on contracts that have already been negotiated, highlighting the tension between supply and demand for trucking capacity. A high rate signals supply constraints, rescheduling, the risk of delays and the transfer of volumes to the spot market, where prices tend to rise and contractual planning becomes more complicated.

Following a relaxation in 2023, the market showed renewed tension in the two-year period 2024–2025. Within the Germany–Italy corridor, the North-East Italy–East Germany route reached a peak rejection rate of 29.5%, highlighting marked cyclical and seasonal instability, partly attributable to the decline in German manufacturing output and the structural shortage of professional drivers in Central Europe. The Northern Italy–United Kingdom routes maintain consistently high rejection rates, ranging between 8% and 15%, with structural imbalances between outbound and inbound flows linked to post-Brexit trade asymmetries.

Structural cost increases: what has the greatest impact on road transport in Europe

Routes from Italy to Germany and the Benelux countries recorded increases in TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) of between 25% and 32.6% over the period 2021–2025, with the North-East Italy → Benelux sub-route at +32.6%, North-East Italy → Northern Germany at +27.9% and North-West Italy → Southern UK at +16.6%.

The component that had the greatest impact was tolls and ferries, which rose by 34% over the period. The increase is largely attributable to the introduction of CO₂-based charging schemes, in implementation of the Eurovignette Directive (2022/362/EU), and the extension of the European ETS to commercial road transport, set to begin in 2024. Next come fuel and drivers’ wages, both up by 26%, reflecting the combined effect of energy inflation and the structural shortage of professional drivers in the European market.

Intermodal solutions are structurally less exposed to these factors: tolls and labour costs, which together account for around 60% of variations in road transport costs, have a significantly lower impact on transalpine rail operations, particularly on routes passing through the Brenner, Gotthard and Fréjus passes.

Intermodality: a structural solution, not a stopgap measure

The data confirm that the cost-effectiveness of intermodal transport is not linked to a single cyclical factor, but to a combination of structural pressures that are unlikely to ease in the medium to long term: rising labour costs, increasing tolls due to a shortage of drivers, and fluctuations in road capacity.

On routes exceeding 800 km in length and with transit times of over 48 hours, intermodal transport can offer tangible benefits in terms of cost stability, operational reliability and reduced CO₂ emissions. The widespread use of alternative fuels such as HVO and the expansion of electric traction on certain European rail routes are also enhancing the sustainability profile of intermodal transport, making it more competitive even against the new ESG reporting standards required of companies.

Contship supports businesses in assessing and implementing logistics flows, offering integrated solutions based on operational efficiency and flexibility, thanks to the direct management of assets throughout the entire logistics chain.

Methodology and data sources

The research was carried out by Contship using data provided by Transporeon, Trimble’s cloud-based transport management platform. The dataset covers over 350,000 FTL journeys per year for the period 2021–2025 and represents approximately 10% of the European road FTL market.

Coordinator: Cristiano Pieragnolo (Contship) · Editorial project: Contship and SRM.

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